Introduction
Forecasting is a tool incorporated into the Resetlytics platform that provides information in relation to future demand of tourism services in the countries of the stakeholders of the Resetting consortium. This tool collects data from public sources of information, with monthly and/or daily frequency, and creates data models that, once run, are able to deliver predictions into the near-future (with uncertainty associated) about variables of interest that somehow are interconnected to tourism demand, like tourists inflows, arrivals at airports, accommodation occupancy, etc.
The collected data is not just directly linked to the tourism sector, like arrivals at airports and availability of accommodations, but also indirect data such as exchange rate, inflation, GDP, etc. Data collected in a short notice like internet searching data is also used to create the data models. Examples of sources of information are: Eurostat, World Bank Open Data, Bureaus of Statistics and Tourism Councils of European countries directly linked to the Resetting consortium, Yahoo Finance, searching engines open-services like Google Trends, etc.
As far as forecasting modelling is concerned, the tool relies on state-of-art algorithms adequate to processing time-series data and from open-source software technology – statistical and deep learning algorithms. The data model most relevant is a Long Short-Term Memory (LTSM) model.
Also, the data being used in the models is also displayed in the Resetlytics platform but in an effective manner so stakeholders can easily figure out patterns of interest in the data. That is, the tool also provides a functionality of exploratory data analysis.
Primary Goals
The main focus of the tool is to empower SMEs, municipalities and service suppliers in the tourism sector to get insights regarding future demand of tourism services in a particular European country, but at no financial cost and acquired on short notice. Based on collected data, free of charge, stakeholders can figure out some tendencies in the sector that they are interested on. This is an interesting looking-back exercise. But by running some data models that are being created, the tool is also able to provide same predictions into the near-feature, although with some uncertainty associated, as expected in the kind of situations.
Key Features
The tool uses the Resetlytics platform to display information that is primarily concerned with demand of products and services in the tourism industry. The displayed information focus on predictions into the near future about variables that are somehow interconnected to tourism demand, such as tourists inflows in European countries. To further detail the approach, the tool can display information about international arrivals at airports, accommodation occupancy, interest in the tourism of a particular country, expressed via proxy variables in the internet space, etc. This predictive information is the outcome of data models built by the tool and based on public collected data. Furthermore, that same data is also displayed in an effective manner so users of the platform can grasp data patterns that might be useful for their business (exploratory data analysis).
Who can use and benefit from this tool?
The target audience are SMEs, municipalities and other tourism stakeholders that are concerned with tourism demand in their own country, and at European level as a whole. In general, these entities have to take strategic decisions that will affect their businesses, or activities. Hence, they are keen on getting as much information as they can to envisage what might happen in the sector in the future with some degree of certainty/uncertainty. On the other hand, they might be also interested on just accessing information related to their activities but at no costs, and shown in an effective manner so they can easily figure out patterns in the data. Actually, that is probably the situation many SMEs in the Resetting consortium are finding themselves.
How Can I use it?
The tool is part of the Resetlytics platform, which is basically a public web-based application but with main functionalities at disposal of registered users – the stakeholders in the Resetting consortium, e.g. SMEs. Hence, SMEs can visualize the information available in the Resetlytics platform that is provided by the Forecasting tool as does the public in general. But then, as a registered user of Resetlytics, it can access information that is more specifically tailored to the interests of the SME or group of SMEs it is part of. For example, accessing detailed information regarding the country it is located, its business activity, whether it is in relation to descriptive collected information (until now) or to predictive information supported by data models. (prediction/forecasting into the near future and with associated uncertainty)